(Bloomberg) -- Boris Johnson is set to push fresh coronavirus lockdown rules through the U.K. Parliament on Wednesday, facing down rebels in his own Conservative Party who reject the erosion of civil liberties they entail.
The regulations are due to take effect from midnight, enforcing the closing of pubs, gyms and non-essential shops in England, and restricting social contact between households. The prime minister announced the month-long lockdown on Saturday after data showed the pandemic exceeding even the worst-case projections of his scientific advisers, threatening to overwhelm hospitals.
There’s also a political cost to the prime minister, who for weeks opposed a fresh lockdown as a “nuclear” option, ridiculing opposition Labour Party Leader Keir Starmer for demanding one. His U-turn sparked concerns among business leaders and anger within his party.
“We are in this house to serve, not dictate,” rank-and-file Tory Member of Parliament Richard Drax said in a parliamentary debate Tuesday. “As we hurtle towards another lockdown, I would not be doing my constituents a service if I did not question the wisdom of following what has already been implemented and failed.”
Johnson Will Find Out Size of Tory Rebellion in Lockdown Vote
Both Graham (NYSE:GHM) Brady (NYSE:BRC), chairman of the influential 1922 committee of rank-and-file Tory lawmakers, and his deputy, Charles Walker, have said they’ll vote against the regulations, but Walker told Sky News on Monday he doesn’t expect the rebellion to exceed 20. That’s fewer than half the 42 Tories who rebelled in a vote last month to confirm the government’s imposition of a 10 p.m. curfew on pubs and restaurants.
Nevertheless, the rules appear certain to go through because Starmer has said Labour will vote for them, making any small-scale Tory rebellion moot.
The rebels are demanding proof that Johnson has an exit strategy, amid fears the curbs will be extended if the infection rate has not dropped sufficiently, and the premier on Tuesday sought to allay concerns that the rules might be in place for longer than a month.
Deaths
“The crucial thing to understand about these measures is that they expire on Dec. 2, they come to an end,” Johnson told his cabinet. He then said authorities will use the next month to develop programs of mass testing that will enable the country to open up again.
Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty on Tuesday told lawmakers that the looming lockdown offers a “realistic possibility” of allowing England to return to looser social-distancing restrictions in December -- if people obey the rules. He said the new rules could “pull us back in time” and bring the reproduction rate of the virus below the key threshold where it spreads exponentially.
Critics of the new curbs have questioned the projections behind the decision, specifically one warning there could be 4,000 deaths per day without intervention, which was used by a Johnson in a televised presentation Saturday.
The government published the modeling Tuesday and, while one model projected deaths peaking at 4,000 a day just before Christmas without any extra restrictions to halt the spread of Covid, a graph of consensus projections showed daily deaths in England at lower than 1,000 in December.
But Whitty said even the lower number “would imply significant pressure” on other parts of the health service, and warned that matching the spring peak of about 1,000 deaths per day “is entirely realistic” without the government taking action.
In another sign of the difficulties the measures are causing the prime minister, the government angered Scottish National Party Leader Nicola Sturgeon because of the lack of clarity over whether the financial assistance that accompanies the lockdown will apply also to Scotland if it follows England into stricter rules.
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