Bonava AB B (BONAVb)

Bonava released its annual results last week. Shares dropped by more than 10%. And for me is also important the decrease of dividends. Company didn’t pay dividends at all in 2019. In 2020 dividends totaled to 5.25 SEK per share and further decreased to 3.5 SEK per share in 2021. It’s not at all what I was counting on((((

Easy way to earn on short positions with Bonava annual report 2022 which is due on 2 Feb 2023.Looking back over 5 years Bonava returns have been really bad:Not growing revenue and even decreasing in 2021 vs 2020Decreasing net profit (down from SEK 1,94 bn in 2017 to SEK 1,23 bn in 2021)No dividends at all (except 4Q 2020)Enormous losses for the shareholders - share price down 71% in the periodhttps://i.postimg.cc/B69zLW88/1.pngAnd 2022 results would be the weakest for 5 year period (will be release on 9.00am CET 2 Feb 2023).Bad facts about the company and what to expect for full year 2022:1. Write down of assets in Russia – extra costs for shareholdersIn October 2022 Bonava sold out its subsidiaries in Russia because of war in Ukraine. The price is EUR 98 m (SEK 1.1 bn) and it is much lower that the real market price of the assets.The write-down of net assets amounts to SEK 0.9 bn in 2022 financial statements.It would negatively affect the share price when the financial statements be released.2. Growing interest rated ruins the businessThe Company has relatively high debt and it tend to grow over the last periods.https://i.postimg.cc/wvXGDWJw/2.pngAverage interest rate increased from 2.15% in 3Q2020 to 3.23% in 3Q2022. This leads to interest expenses increase and additional losses.https://i.postimg.cc/fyMgCxfD/3.png3. Lack of liquidity in 2023 decreases shareholders valueMoreover Bonava will have to make significant payments on its debt obligations in 2023 as shown on the diagram below. Most probably part of the debt will be refinanced at a higher rate which will decrease shareholders value of the Company.https://i.postimg.cc/xC36XXD7/4.png4. Additional costs as a result of inflation.Bonava faces growing construction costs as a result of rapidly growing inflation. At the same time the Company cannot increase sales price because demand is very sensitive to further price increase which is already record high. The marked is in bubble condition which could burst anytime in 2023.In such situation investors are not willing to deposit their money in assets like real estate and Bonava has to deal with that somehow.5. Deterioration on real estate market in Europe and bubble growing risk for investorsThe demand for homes is rapidly falling and the unemployment rate is getting higher coupled by increasing interest rate.The uncertainty in geopolitical aspects and Europe economy in all have already started to impact real estate demand and prices. The marker is overheated and prices are starting to get down.

Bonava – bad annual report 2022 and weak forecasts.Negative drivers:1. Write down of assets in Russia – extra costs for shareholders2. Growing interest rated ruins the business3. Lack of liquidity in 2023 decreases shareholders value4. Additional costs as a result of inflation.5. Deterioration on real estate market in Europe and bubble growing risk for investorsAdditional info:Looking back over 5 years Bonava returns have been really bad:- Not growing revenue and even decreasing in 2021 vs 2020- Decreasing net profit (down from SEK 1,94 bn in 2017 to SEK 1,23 bn in 2021)- No dividends at all (except 4Q 2020)- Enormous losses for the shareholders - share price down 71% in the period

Did my prediction work? Or a technical correction? The rallies continue, the company must cut one business unit, so there will be losses from leaving RussiaI think it will drop to 25

Hello, guys! please, share your opinion. There is a good development company Bonava (BONAV B), which builds housing in Europe, as well as in Russia (a little bit). From the news feed, I came across reports that rallies were held in Estonia and Finland, demanding that the company leave Russia, the aggressor country. Its market capitalization is SEK 3.6 billionThey say that in Russia business will stop working anyway and it will almost be nationalized. They themselves estimate that the Russian unit is worth 1.4 Bn SEK, with the cost of leaving Russia. This is almost 40% of the current market cap! At the same time, there is no information in the reports that would reflect the loss, i.e. the market has not yet reacted. Therefore, one way or another, but Bonava should become cheaper.It turns out that the company's shares will fall in price by 30-40 percent? Can you agree this?