1) G20 meeting – 28/06 – the dominant question over the past few weeks has been whether Presidents Trump and President Xi of China will meet in an attempt to try and draw a line and defuse the recent deterioration, and rise in tension in the US, China trade talks. Market optimism is high that some form of détente will be arrived at which keeps the prospect of a deal on the table, and this appears to be borne out by the pledge to resume talks between the respective sides negotiators in the past few days. The current optimism about a deal still seems a little misplaced, however there is optimism that we won’t see an escalation. President Trump has consistently maintained that he is ready to put tariffs on the remaining $300bn worth of Chinese goods in the event no progress is made over this weekend.
2) Trainline IPO - 26/06 – unconditional trading starts this week for Trainline and its one of those rare beasts, an IPO which is actually profitable, which probably means it won’t be very popular! Valued at an estimated £1.68bn at an offer price of 350p a share, the Trainline share price rose sharply on its first day of conditional trading to well over 400p, suggesting some strong underlying demand. The company made a profit last year of £10.5m on revenues of £3.2bn, after three years of losses. The company is raising £75m in order to help improve the technology, and potentially expand into other areas of travel, like buses and aviation. In Europe the percentage of train tickets bought on line is still quite low at 39%, which means the scope for revenue growth is substantial, and augurs well for further share price gains.
3) RBNZ rate decision – 26/06 – at its last meeting the RBNZ cut rates to a new record low of 1.5%, which was pretty much expected. The bank also downgraded its guidance for the next 12 months, saying that another rate cut could be on the way, citing the US, China trade dispute as a major drag on the economy. No changes are expected for this meeting, however we could still get a heavily dovish message.
4) US Q1 GDP (Final) – 27/06 – not expecting too many surprises from this number after the surprise revision higher in the previous number to 3.2%, from 2.3%. Higher than expected local government spending helped boost the bigger revision, along with higher inventories, which may not be matched in Q2. Expectations around Q2 have been more mixed, however whichever way you look at it Q1 is still expected to show a US economy that is ticking along nicely, with only a slight slowdown expected in Q2.
5) UK Q1 GDP (Final) – 28/06 – much has been made of the better than expected performance of the UK economy in Q1, which came in at 0.5%. It is true that some of the improvement can be put down to front running of demand ahead of the end of March Brexit deadline, and this may cause a slowdown in Q2, which means the Q1 numbers may not be that instructive. The business investment numbers are where the story is at the moment and they look ugly, currently at -0.9%. We need to see some evidence of an improvement here.
6) Carpetright PLC FY19 - 25/06 – when Carpetright announced its first half numbers at the end of last year, the costs were eye watering. A loss of £11.7m, the closure of 65 stores, with another 11 to close in the next few months. The company also announced that it was refurbishment program which is upgrading its remaining stores was helping the company to return better numbers than expected. The hope appears to be that a slowing housing market will likely prompt consumers to spend their money on improving their homes, as opposed to moving to new ones. In April the company posted a very positive update saying that revenues were moving towards positive territory, prompting the Carpetright share price to more than double to 36p, though since then we’ve given up most of those gains.
7) Stagecoach FY19 – 26/06 – it’s been a bumpy few months for the Stagecoach share price in recent months. Earlier this year the company revised its profit forecast higher citing a strong performance from its rail division. Having exited the East Coast franchise, the rest of its rail division saw a rise of 1.4% in the 44 weeks to March. Revenues from its 49% stake in Virgin Rail saw a 6.7% rise, while its buses division also showed an improvement of 3.4%. With the shares near multi year lows the question needs to be asked is whether the shares could go any lower?
8) Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) Q3 19 – 25/06 – chip makers and semiconductor stocks have been at the centre of the trade storm unfolding between the US and China in recent months as the impact of tariffs hits their global business model. The recent downgrade by Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) has only served to amplify these concerns and with Micron chips a big seller to China’s Huawei, accounting for 13% of its revenue, we could well see a significant miss, as well as a possible downgrade coming in these latest numbers. Profits in the coming months are also likely to be significantly lower, unless the company can offset the loss of the Huawei business elsewhere. Q3 profits are expected to come in at $0.81c a share.
9) Nike (NYSE:NKE) Q4 19 – 27/06 – Nike’s share price managed to post a new all-time high in April in the wake of its Q3 numbers the company is still seeing decent growth, particularly in China which saw revenues rise 24%. There doesn’t appear to be any trade war hangovers here or any sign of a slowdown across any of its regions. There was growth in all of its major markets, and while the US lagged behind, total revenues overall rose by 7% from a year before. Profits also beat expectations in Q3, coming in at $0.68c a share, with expectations for Q4 expected to come in at $0.66c a share.
10) Fedex Q4 19 – 25/06 – the decline in Fedex share price in recent weeks probably reflects a concern that a slowing global economy will drag on revenues and profits. It was a worry earlier this year, particularly in China as well as the US, with China sales data at 16 year lows, and there were differing signals being given out when it comes to official US retail sales data, when compared to the upbeat sales numbers being reported by the likes of Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). In recent months the US retail sales numbers have picked up which should be a good thing for FedEx (NYSE:FDX) numbers. In Q3 their numbers missed expectations, and downgraded their profit expectations, citing global factors, and a weak Europe. Another downside this quarter is that it found itself caught up in the US, China trade spat after being accused by Huawei of deliberately misrouting two packages from Japan that were supposed to go to China, but ended up in the US. Profits are expected to come in at $4.90c a share
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