- U.S. futures slightly higher after SPX 1.8% slump on Monday
- Yuan leaps on new trade rhetoric
- Yields once again attempt to overtake 200 DMA
Key Events
U.S. futures contracts for the S&P 500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ are all marginally higher this morning, after finishing lower during yesterday's Wall Street session. European shares declined, along with most Asian markets, as thin volume continued to weigh on stocks at the end of what's shaping up to have been an exceptionally profitable year for those who remained in the markets after 2018's Q4 selloff.
Indeed, U.S. equities are on course for their best performance since 2013. As of yesterday, with one trading day remaining in 2019, the SPX was up 28%, the Dow gained 22% and the NASDAQ Composite climbed 35%.
Global Financial Affairs
Some investors, however, may be developing a fear of heights. On Monday, the S&P 500 saw its worst fall in three weeks. The benchmark index closed down -0.58%.
Today, bank and energy shares dragged the STOXX 600 lower. The pan-European index is set for an annual gain of 23%, its best yearly return in a decade.
Most Asian indices slipped as investors locked in profits at the close of the year. Australia’s ASX 200 dropped 1.78% but still ended its best year in a decade up about 20%, boosted by the path toward a U.S.-China trade deal. China’s Shanghai Composite was one of this morning's few gainers, up 0.33%
The dollar declined against the yen and most of its other major peers. It's the fourth day of the Japanese currency's losing streak as it fell below its rising channel.
China’s yuan jumped in trade headlines. U.S. trade adviser Peter Navarro said Monday that a preliminary deal with Beijing was 'in the bag.' The South China Morning Post reported an accord could be signed as early as this weekend. China’s manufacturing PMI held steady, signaling expansion in December.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury note edged lower, putting the global benchmark on track to end the year yielding about 1.89%, down 80 basis points from where it started 2019.
Technically, after failing to overcome the 200 DMA yesterday, rates will try another run. Yields are stuck between a long-term downtrend and a short-term uptrend. They have been mired since the Nov. 7 high, around the downtrend line from November 2018, while remaining within the rising channel since the September bottom.
WTI oil futures edged lower even after a report that Iran's Revolutionary Guard had detained a tanker in the Persian Gulf, on accusations it was smuggling fuel. Crude is on track for its biggest yearly gain since 2016. It's up approximately 35%.
Technically, oil is converging to the point of a potential explosion, after falling below its uptrend line since 2016. It's currently retesting the top of the large monthly pennant, but failed to climb back over the long-term uptrend line. The 50-month MA has proved to be a solid support.
Gold rose, headed for its biggest annual boost since 2010. The yellow metal is up about 19%.
Up Ahead
- U.S. fixed income markets close early today, at 2PM EST.
- Most global markets will be closed on Wednesday Jan. 1, for the New Year holiday.
- China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI is released on Thursday.
- Federal Open Market Committee minutes are due on Friday.
- U.S. ISM Manufacturing data will be reported on Friday. The Institute for Supply Management’s PMI is forecast to show a contraction for a fifth straight month.
Market Moves
Stocks
- The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.2%.
- Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed.
- The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.3%.
- The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 0.2%.
Currencies
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries gained one basis point to 1.89%.
- Britain’s 10-year yield decreased one basis point to 0.856%.