Ooh, Jean-Claude, such a tease!
It is a characteristic of the political leadership of the EU that they like to make speeches that provide encouragement for dialogue but come up short of making promises or demands that could be them making a decision.
Donald Tusk stirred up hopes for a Brexit deal following the EU Heads of Government summit last month only to be able to step back from his comments when the deal wasn’t agreed. Jean-Claude Juncker did the same yesterday when he said a decision on moving to stage two of Brexit talks would be made in the next few days and that talks had been “intensive” over the past few days. Meaning? None!
The EU have consistently placed the negotiation ball firmly in the U.K.’s court since Brexit talks began. Not willing to make demands that could be criticized as too harsh by other members they prefer to wait for the U.K. then turn them down as not sufficient.
It is often said that the move towards a more “Federal” Europe will be a bad thing. That is a matter for discussion, but one thing is sure: unless they move to a political situation where what they say is binding and they stop looking over their collective shoulder for the next potential Brexit, it is doomed to fail.
May in Brussels to visit the Last Chance Saloon
Theresa May visits Brussels to deliver the U.K.’s proposals for the removal of the logjam that has developed around Brexit talks. Central to her visit will be the increase of the U.K.’s offer to settle the divorce bill form twenty billion euros to forty billion. She will also be expected to provide proposals about the governance of EU nationals remaining in the U.K. following Brexit and the Irish border. Those two issues could prove as problematic as the financial consideration.
There is no way that the U.K. is going to allow the European Courts to have any say in the treatment of those who choose to stay after Brexit and the ramifications of the Irish border are deep and wide. They reach into the very heart of the government since the agreement with the DUP could be at stake if an agreement is viewed as putting the Irish Republic at an advantage in the peace process. Ireland stands to be the major lower from Brexit and it is likely that the EU will solve the issue in its time-honoured way by throwing other people’s cash at the problem.
Trump’s disappointing first year
Could do better? Needs to concentrate more? Has potential but often fails to deliver?
Donald Trump’s first year of Presidency has been long on promises and short on delivery. He has proven to be the most divisive President in history both domestically and internationally. His approval rating is the lowest of any Presidency in its first year.
The fiscal reform and economic stimulus packages have not yet seen the light of day. Fiscal reform is being debated in Congress while economic stimulus is still “on the drawing board. In his Thanksgiving speech to the country yesterday, Trump promised “big fat tax cuts”. I think the people are now entitled to ask “WHEN?”
Coupled with the benign inflation outlook calling into question further hikes in rates as Jerome Powell takes over at the Fed. the future direction for the dollar is also clouded in doubt.
The dollar index has fallen from 103.82 in January to 91.01 in September. It has recovered a little due more to the political issues in the eurozone, whose currency makes up more than 50% of the index, than any positivity towards the greenback.