Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
So, who did we think would be the first casualty of the German election? Did Wolfgang Schauble the Finance Minister and “scourge of Athens” believe his neck was on the block.
When stitching together her Jamaica coalition with the FDP and Greens the demands of the minority members were bound to be considerable since Frau Merkel finds herself in an unexpectedly weak position.
Christian Linder, the FDP Leader, is expected to take over as Finance Minister. He is a believer in a Thatcherite free market economy and is nowhere as pro-Europe as his predecessor.
The Green Party was true to form demanding the closure of the twenty dirtiest coal mines as its “pound of flesh”. It is difficult to weigh up if Germany’s position at the head of the European Table has been weakened yet.
The common currency which a couple of months ago was basking in the glory of the holy trinity of Political Stability, a growing economy and benign inflation has suddenly been cast back into the cauldron it found itself in in January. With the Italians set to keep the pot boiling with their parallel currency plans, the euro faces a tough next three quarters.
It’s an ill wind
Emmanuel Macron appears even shorter than his 175cm height. But what he lacks in physical stature he is determined to make up for in influence. Buoyed by his domestic support, he has turned his sights firmly on Europe.
Just as Herr Schauble was the unexpected loser in the German Election, Monsieur Macron has emerged as the even more unlikely winner.
It is hard to say whether it was by luck or judgement but Macron’s speech on Tuesday where he called for the EU to cooperate more closely on defence, immigration, tax and social policy, and for the single currency bloc to have its own budget was perfectly timed to launch his desire to play a leading role in Europe. He may also have inadvertently sealed Brexit as these are the concerns that those UK voters not blinded by xenophobia were most concerned about.
His speech will have resonated through Paris, Brussels and Frankfurt as he attempts to cement a place at the top table of EU policy making, possibly usurping Frau Merkel who will be forced to concentrate on domestic matters.