Crude Oil
I wrote last time:
The Bullish Apr - Jun Andrews Pitchfork is still on the Daily Chart above as is the 50% Fib of this move at 69.43. We'd need closes under the 50% Fib to just move it into a Neutral state and ideally Neutral would see the market under the Medium MA (currently 67.97).'. So...let me tell you what Jul has done...especially also adding the first few days of Aug! We've tested a few times below the 50% Fib at 69.43 and we're currently below it. We are also currently below the Medium MA. Finally, we have edged out on the downside the Bullish Apr - Jun Andrews Pitchfork. Closing where we are now tonight and we'll have confirmation that the Pitchfork (which is still on the Daily Chart above) will no longer be valid. The main hope for the Bulls is now the congestion between 66.95 - 66.67 which has held up the market back in Mid Jul.
Will it be strong enough now?. I'm not sure, there's less ammunition but it is all packed in closer together and may soon be tested as support. I'd add one other question...is this whole early Jul -to-date action part of a large Bearish Halfway Hesitation/Bear Flag...it would be interesting if it were as it would challenge the June low at 63.60 as a potential Target area. Topside, well to counteract this possible move down you'd need consecutive closes over the 50% Fib at 69.43 to start. The old AP is dead...you'd need to look for a new pattern instead as well. Finally, I note how the Short MA (currently 69.37), the Short/Medium MA (currently 69.08) and the Medium MA look as if they may intersect. They are in the right order as well....so watch out for a possible Bow Tie Formation. A bit early yet...but just in case. As a postscript...with two MAs pointing up and two down...it would be appropriate to move the bullet point into Neutral for the moment.
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