Spreadex | Oct 20, 2020 06:08
Monday’s rebound ran aground as the session went on, as positive polling for Biden and solid growth out of China battled with stimulus stalling and covid-19 news.
The markets had started on the front foot thanks to a 4.9% increase in Q3 GDP for China, and continued strong polling for Joe Biden – though SpreadEX’s has seen a shift in the Democrats’ Electoral College Votes spread over the weekend, from 321-329 to 312-320, with Trump rising from 208-217 to 218-226.
However, the likelihood that a covid-19 stimulus package won’t arrive this side of the election – Nancy Pelosi has set a 48-hour deadline that ends on Tuesday night – combined with another wave of restrictions in Europe undermined the strength of the market’s open.
Now they are all over the place. The FTSE and DAX fell 0.7% and 0.5% respectively, as the pound and euro took around half a percent each off the dollar. The CAC, on the other hand, is unchanged just below 4940, with the Dow Jones nudging 0.1% higher to keep the right side of 28,600.
Where next? As stimulus hopes wane, investors may be forced to pay more attention to the election, with a big Biden win their best bet for a sizeable relief plan. Focus could, then, alight on Thursday’s 2nd – but meant to be 3rd – presidential debate in Nashville.
As for the economic calendar, the real good stuff isn’t now until Friday, when we see the flash manufacturing and services PMIs for October.
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